Annual report providing a 2050 outlook on feedstocks and technologies for hydrogen production in global markets, broken down by region.

Long-Term Outlook

Manager, Clean Energy & Transport

Janire Riobello

Hydrogen

Hydrogen relies significantly on the diversity of its feedstocks and the innovative technologies powering its production worldwide. Derived primarily from a spectrum of sources such as natural gas, coal, biomass, waste materials, and electricity, hydrogen production undergoes diverse pathways driven by technologies like steam methane reforming, gasification, electrolysis, and more. Historically relying on natural gas reforming or coal gasification, new pathways are emerging worldwide to facilitate a transformative shift toward a cleaner hydrogen market. Among these, electrolytic hydrogen remains the most promising low-carbon pathway given the expected growth in renewable electricity generation, but significant growth is foreseen also for other technologies including biomethane reforming combined with carbon capture (CCS) and (bio)methane pyrolysis.&nbsp;
This annual report provides an analysis of hydrogen production growth based on existing and announced projects worldwide, with an outlook stretching to 2050. This includes data on hydrogen capacity classification based on the technology and type of feedstock used, broken down into seven regions...
<h1><a href="~/members/members?ContentID=27270" title="" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Read more</a><a href="https://www.stratasadvisors.com/members/hydrogen-technology-feedstock-outlook/2023-12-19t083200-0500" title="" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a> &gt;&gt;</h1>
<h3>Related Services</h3>
<h3><a href="~/services/services?ContentID=155" title="" target="">Global Hydrogen Outlook</a></h3>

Hydrogen Technology & Feedstock Outlook

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<h2>Table of Contents</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1hi1hvsv61">Executive Summary</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml0">Global Hydrogen Feedstock &amp; Technology Outlook</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml1">Africa</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml2">Asia Pacific</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml3">CIS</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml4">Europe</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml5">Latin America</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml6">Middle East</a></li>
<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml7">North America</a></li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="#mcetoc_1ipf2vtml8">Hydrogen Assets Database and Downloadable Excel File</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<h2 id="mcetoc_1hi1hvsv61">Executive Summary</h2>
Hydrogen relies significantly on the diversity of its feedstocks and the innovative technologies powering its production worldwide. Derived primarily from a spectrum of sources such as natural gas, coal, biomass, waste materials, and electricity, hydrogen production undergoes diverse pathways driven by technologies like steam methane reforming, gasification, electrolysis, and more. Historically relying on natural gas reforming or coal gasification, new pathways are emerging worldwide to facilitate a transformative shift toward a cleaner hydrogen market. Among these, electrolytic hydrogen remains the most promising low-carbon pathway given the expected growth in renewable electricity generation, but significant growth is foreseen also for other technologies including biomethane reforming combined with carbon capture (CCS) and (bio)methane pyrolysis.&nbsp;
This report provides an analysis of hydrogen production growth based on existing and announced projects worldwide, with an outlook stretching to 2050. This includes data on hydrogen capacity classification based on the technology and type of feedstock used, broken down into seven regions. Key highlights of this report include:
<ul>
<li>Natural gas currently accounts for 57.3% of global hydrogen production capacity, with steam methane reforming without CCS as the predominant production pathway at a market share of 58.4%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Coal gasification is the dominant pathway in Asia Pacific due to China's strong coal-based hydrogen production base</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Electrolytic hydrogen makes up roughly 1.2% of total global hydrogen production, but is poised for exponential growth to account for over 40% of total global supply by 2050&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Albeit at a smaller scale, other low-carbon production pathways also see significant growth over the forecast period, with steam reforming combined with CCS as the preferred blue hydrogen production pathway at a market share of 7.5% out of total global supply by 2050</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Emerging pathways like (bio)methane pyrolysis and biomethane reforming see significant growth over the forecast too despite remaining negligible compared to other low-carbon technologies</li>
</ul>
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<h2 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml0">Global Hydrogen Feedstock &amp; Technology Outlook</h2>
In 2024, global hydrogen production worldwide reached about 98 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA), and is expected to continue to expand rapidly to 134.2 MMTPA by 2035 and further to over 207 MMTPA by 2050. Global hydrogen supply is currently dominated by fossil pathways without CCS, which in 2024 made up 97.9% of total supply. However, driven by climate targets, the bulk of growth in global production capacity is expected to derive from low-carbon pathways, with green, blue, bio-based, and other low-carbon hydrogen production representing about half of total global supply by 2050.&nbsp;Please refer to Stratas Advisors' updated&nbsp;<a href="~/members/members?ContentID=27271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hydrogen Supply and Demand Outlook</a>&nbsp;for further information.
In 2024, natural gas was by far the most commonly-used feedstock for hydrogen production, accounting for more than 57.3% of global hydrogen supply. As the predominant pathway in China, coal products currently account for a 26.4% share, with petrochemical and refinery byproduct making up another 14.7% share combined. Over the outlook to 2050 however, traditional feedstocks are expected to be gradually replaced by lower-carbon sources, particularly electricity. While grid electricity remains dominant in the first half of the forecast, the rollout of renewable energy is expected to allow a growing shift to off-grid renewable energy sources for electrolysis-based hydrogen production, particularly solar. Bio-feedstocks are also expected to gain traction gradually despite remaining significantly smaller in market share, while a substantial portion of fossil-based feedstocks are likely to be equipped with CCS technologies.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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In line with the feedstocks utilized, in 2024, steam reforming (SR) of methane was the predominant hydrogen production pathway, absorbing a market share of 58.5% out of total production. While other natural gas-based pathways remained relatively marginal, coal gasification constituted the second-largest production pathway, followed by by-product hydrogen and oil product gasification. CCS technologies see an increasing role in traditional hydrogen production pathways, covering about 8.1% of global hydrogen production capacity by 2050, especially deployed in combination with SR. Among the projects disclosing the planned electrolyzer technology, proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis remains dominant, with more efficient solid oxide electrolyzer cells (SOEC) gaining ground as the market for green hydrogen grows. The shift to PEM and SOEC technology from the initially predominant alkaline electrolysis (AEL) is supported by the better performance of the former in terms of efficiency rates and raw material intensity. By 2035, AEL electrolyzers are expected to make up about a quarter of total electrolyzer deployment in the world, down from the estimated 49.9% share in 2024. While PEM technologies are also expected to decline in market share relative to total electrolysis-based hydrogen production from 34% in 2024 to about 29.1% in 2035, it is likely that a significant volume of planned electrolysis-based projects which have not yet selected a technology will eventually opt for PEM as the cost gap compared to AEL becomes narrower. In turn, SOEC technologies see significant growth to account for 9.5% of total electrolysis-based pathways by 2035.
Besides electrolytic hydrogen and CCS installations, other pathways are also expected to gain significance in the longer term, in particular hydrogen produced from biomass gasification, biomethane reforming, and (bio)methane pyrolysis.&nbsp;
[shoojuview id="xtjqsckhpwhfsdeqohsx"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml1">Africa</h3>
In 2024, natural gas made up the lion's share of Africa's total hydrogen production. However, following the rapid expansion of green hydrogen projects across the continent, particularly in Sub-Saharan and Northern Africa, natural gas is expected to fall to a market share of 36.2% by 2050, with electrolytic hydrogen instead growing to account for over 62.7% of total supply. Africa is expected to leverage its vast solar energy potential for large-scale off-grid hydrogen production, although multiple projects are also expected to use grid electricity&mdash;particularly where the grid is largely decarbonized.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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Steam reforming currently accounts for 97% of Africa's total hydrogen production capacity, followed by hydrogen output from petrochemicals production. From the late 2020s onwards, electrolysis will begin to take up increasing shares of African hydrogen production, with PEM initially as the leader but with more rapid growth projected for AEL in the medium term. In turn, the expected contribution of SOEC electrolysis to African green hydrogen projects is expected to be significantly stronger than in other regions, potentially becoming the dominating electrolysis technology by the late 2030s.
[shoojuview id="xvsyslhpsyxrpicfqauq"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml2">Asia Pacific</h3>
Due to China's stronghold, Asia Pacific differs from other regions given its strong reliance on coal as the main source for hydrogen production. In fact, in 2024, coal feedstocks&nbsp;made up about 54% of Asia Pacific's total hydrogen production. While natural gas-based and byproduct hydrogen production has been growing slightly in recent years, the bulk of growth in the medium-to-long term is driven by green hydrogen production, making electrolytic hydrogen gain a market share of 49.5% by the end of the forecast period.&nbsp;In particular, while grid electricity is set to drive the bulk of growth in electrolysis-based hydrogen production in the medium term, long-term growth is characterized by a surge in solar-based off-grid green hydrogen production, with wind electricity increasingly being used as a feedstock as well.
[shoojuview id="ydzyumjiwjfuifdbwwqo"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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Coal gasification and steam methane reforming without CCS currently account for a combined 89.3% of Asia Pacific's total hydrogen production capacity, followed by hydrogen output from petrochemicals production. Similar to other markets, from the late 2020s, electrolysis will begin to take up increasing shares of Asia Pacific's hydrogen production, with PEM technology potentially surpassing AEL as the preferred technology in the longer term thanks primarily to the growth of the Australian green hydrogen market. SOEC technologies will also see significant growth in Asia, with short-term SOEC growth originating primarily from Thailand and Japan.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml3">CIS</h3>
Hydrogen production in the CIS region is dominated by natural gas feedstocks, which in 2024 made up over 98% of total regional supply. With Russia seeing limited growth in terms of low-carbon hydrogen production, natural gas is expected to remain dominant over the entire forecast period, although some gains are seen in terms of electrolytic hydrogen production thanks to capacity additions outside of Russia, especially in Kazakhstan. However, due to the limited number of planned projects, natural gas is expected to regain some market share in the longer term as capacity is increased in Russia.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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Steam methane reforming currently accounts for 87.6% of total hydrogen production capacity in the CIS region, followed by hydrogen output from petrochemical by-product. Unlike other regions, CCS deployment is expected to remain limited in CIS, with virtually all low-carbon pathway gains originating from Kazakhstan's green hydrogen production.&nbsp;
[shoojuview id="ghoznzpiznauqovktbvq"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml4">Europe</h3>
Despite the expected expansion of low-carbon hydrogen production in the region, natural gas currently serves as a feedstock for 78% of the hydrogen produced in Europe, followed by refinery feedstocks and by-product petrochemicals production. As one of the top producers of bio-based hydrogen, bio-based feedstocks made up 0.5% of total regional supply in 2024, expected to expand significantly in the medium term to serve primarily the emerging biomethanol market. However, medium-to-long term growth is characterized by a phenomenal growth in green hydrogen production, with grid electricity becoming the main feedstock for electrolytic pathways in the short-to-medium term. In the longer term, wind energy&mdash;and particular offshore wind farms located in Northern Europe&mdash;are expected to become a key feedstock for off-grid electrolytic hydrogen production, capturing a 17.6% share by the end of the forecast.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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Steam methane reforming without CCS currently accounts for 76.1% of Europe's total hydrogen supply, followed by hydrogen output from coke oven gas. With PEM technology consolidating as the preferred electrolytic hydrogen production pathway in Europe, electrolysis-based hydrogen production capacity is expected to grow rapidly, with SOEC technology potentially seeing a stronger adoption in the longer term as associated CAPEX declines. Natural gas reforming combined with CCS also sees strong growth in Europe, accounting for 8.1% of total production by the end of the forecast period thanks primarily to significant uptake in Netherlands, Belgium, UK, and Norway.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml5">Latin America</h3>
Latin American production capacity is almost entirely made up of fossil feedstocks, with natural gas accounting for 89.7% of total regional production in 2024. However, following the commissioning of large-scale green hydrogen projects in South America, particularly Chile and Brazil, electrolytic hydrogen is expected to make up 15.7% of total supply by 2030, increasing to 40.2% by 2050, originating primarily from grid electricity.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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Steam methane reforming without CCS currently accounts for 89.5% of Latin America's total hydrogen production, followed by hydrogen output from petrochemical by-product. AEL technology is expected to remain largely prevalent for electrolytic hydrogen production in the short-to-medium term, although a majority of large-scale green hydrogen projects announced in Latin America have not yet announced the planned electrolysis technology, opening up opportunities for higher-efficiency technologies. Natural gas reforming with CCS sees some growth in the region, growing to make up 3.4% of regional production capacity by 2050.
[shoojuview id="lywleakdynbxkpnagloj"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml6">Middle East</h3>
Thanks to its access to low-cost petroleum and natural gas, 83.1% of Middle Eastern hydrogen production is made up of natural gas, followed by refinery feedstocks. This is expected to remain largely unchanged until the late 2020s, after which electrolytic hydrogen production will begin to grow exponentially thanks to large-scale projects planned in Oman, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. By 2050, electricity is expected to constitute 19.8% of total regional hydrogen production, procured primarily from grid electricity and off-grid solar PV.
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Source: Stratas Advisors
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Steam methane reforming and output from petrochemical by-product currently account for the lion's share of Middle East's total hydrogen supply, with oil product gasification making up a minor 0.5% share. As a major oil-producing region, CCS technologies are expected to replace some of the current production via SR without CCS over the forecast period, reaching a market share of 14% by 2050. In turn, electrolytic hydrogen grows exponentially, with a majority of projects however still not having disclosed the preferred electrolysis technology to be deployed.
[shoojuview id="qucvbtmeacgrkjnyxvqk"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h3 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml7">North America</h3>
Thanks to its access to low-cost petroleum and natural gas, 76.4% of North American hydrogen production capacity is made up of natural gas, followed by refinery feeds and petrochemical by-product. Highly supporting the development of bio-based hydrogen production, especially from biomethane, biomass-based feedstocks are expected to make up 1.3% of North American production by 2030, growing further to 2.5% by 2050. However, electrolytic hydrogen production sees significantly stronger growth, with grid electricity as the dominant feedstock despite the longer-term growth of off-grid wind electricity.
[shoojuview id="kwowupcljnxrzpgcuiis"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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Steam methane reforming and output from petrochemical by-product currently account for the lion's share of North America's total hydrogen supply. Driven by generous incentives for blue hydrogen production, especially in the US, CCS technologies are expected to replace a significant portion of the current production via SR without CCS over the forecast period, reaching an impressive 21.2% share by 2050. However, the strongest growth is observed in terms of electrolytic hydrogen production capacity, making up almost 17.8% of total North American capacity by 2050. Despite the penetration of other electrolysis technologies, PEM is expected to consolidate as the main technology over the forecast period, with SOEC seeing very limited penetration on the basis of project announcements.&nbsp;
[shoojuview id="jtanodwcghzmqxjauxew"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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<h2 id="mcetoc_1ipf2vtml8">Hydrogen Assets Database and Downloadable Excel File</h2>
[shoojuview id="rvjjdpsgmhdxyibjqepl"]
Source: Stratas Advisors
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&nbsp;

Hydrogen relies significantly on the diversity of its feedstocks and the innovative technologies powering its production worldwide. Derived primarily from a spectrum of sources such as natural gas, coal, biomass, waste materials, and electricity, hydrogen production undergoes diverse pathways driven by technologies like steam methane reforming, gasification, electrolysis, and more. Historically relying on natural gas reforming or coal gasification, new pathways are emerging worldwide to facilitate a transformative shift toward a cleaner hydrogen market. Among these, electrolytic hydrogen remains the most promising low-carbon pathway given the expected growth in renewable electricity generation, but significant growth is foreseen also for other technologies including biomethane reforming combined with carbon capture (CCS) and (bio)methane pyrolysis.&nbsp;
This annual report provides an analysis of hydrogen production growth based on existing and announced projects worldwide, with an outlook stretching to 2050. This includes data on hydrogen capacity classification based on the technology and type of feedstock used, broken down into seven regions. Key highlights of this report include:
<ul>
<li>Natural gas currently accounts for 57.3% of global hydrogen production capacity, with steam methane reforming without CCS as the predominant production pathway at a market share of 58.4%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Coal gasification is the dominant pathway in Asia Pacific due to China's strong coal-based hydrogen production base</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Electrolytic hydrogen makes up roughly 1.2% of total global hydrogen production, but is poised for exponential growth to account for over 40% of total global supply by 2050&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Albeit at a smaller scale, other low-carbon production pathways also see significant growth over the forecast period, with steam reforming combined with CCS as the preferred blue hydrogen production pathway at a market share of 7.5% out of total global supply by 2050</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Emerging pathways like (bio)methane pyrolysis and biomethane reforming see significant growth over the forecast too despite remaining negligible compared to other low-carbon technologies</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/042325-HydrogenFeedstockChart_20250422060130.png?w=800" alt="Chart">
Note: Feedstock and technology data stretching from 2021 to 2050 by region is available to members.
<h2>_________________</h2>
<h3>The detailed report is available to members of Stratas Advisors' <a href="https://www.stratasadvisors.com/services/renewable---alternative-fuels/global-hydrogen-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Hydrogen Outlook</a> service.&nbsp;<a href="~/about/contact-us" target="_self">Contact us</a> for more information.</h3>