The price of Brent crude reached $73.34 on Thursday before ending the week at $72.54 after closing the previous week at $72.11. The price of WTI ended the week at $69.04 after closing the previous week at $68.30. The price of DME Oman crude ended the week at $75.01. 

Weekly Oil Price Outlook

President

John E. Paisie

This weekly report is an excerpt from our&nbsp;<a href="~/services/services?ContentID=190" target="_self">Short-Term Outlook service</a>&nbsp;analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.&nbsp; Contact John Paisie (+1-832-517-7544) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
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<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/033125-WAOP_20250331094802.png?w=800" alt="chart">
The price of Brent crude reached $73.34 on Thursday before ending the week at $72.54 after closing the previous week at $72.11. The price of WTI ended the week at $69.04 after closing the previous week at $68.30. The price of DME Oman crude ended the week at $75.01. <o:p></o:p>
At the beginning of last week, we expressed the view that oil prices would continue to move higher, and the price of Brent crude could test $73.00 with support coming from members of OPEC+ reaching an agreement to address previous oversupply, coupled with the Trump Administration placing new sanctions on Iran&rsquo;s oil exports to China. Additional support was expected from demand starting to pick up with the northern hemisphere moving into the warmer months. The price of Brent crude did test $73.00 but prices dropped at the end of the week, in part, because of economic concerns stemming from President Trump announcing tariffs on all vehicles manufactured outside of the US. <o:p></o:p>
For the upcoming week, we think the price of Brent crude will move sideways and struggle to go higher for the following reasons: <o:p></o:p>
<ul>
<li>There are concerns and uncertainties about the impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration &ndash; and the possibility of retaliation &ndash; which will create more economic hardship for all parties. Additionally, economic news continues to be mixed. While the recently released official PMIs for China indicate that China&rsquo;s economy is picking up some momentum, employment still looks weak. Meanwhile, inflation is still lingering in the US. The core (excluding food and energy) personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up in March with a 0.4% increase from February, which is the largest increase since January 2024. From an annual basis the inflation rate is 2.8%. Including food and energy, the PCE increased by 0.3% for the month and 2.5% from a year ago.<o:p></o:p></li>
<li>Countering concerns about economic growth and oil demand is the threat of secondary sanctions of 25% to 50% tariffs on those importing Russia oil, if a ceasefire deal is not reached and Trump views the failure the fault of Russia. This threat follows the Trump Administration placing sanctions on Iran&rsquo;s and Venezuela&rsquo;s oil exports. While the ultimate effectiveness of the sanctions is in doubt, the sanctions add another layer of uncertainty to the oil supply, which provides some support for oil prices.<o:p></o:p></li>
<li>On the other hand, while members of OPEC+ have reached an agreement to address previous oversupply, OPEC+ is scheduled to start the process of unwinding previous supply cuts. Although the initial volumes will be relatively minor, OPEC+ is sitting on a spare capacity of more than 5.0 million b/d.</li>
</ul>
<o:p></o:p>Oil traders continue to be bearish. Net long positions of WTI are now 64% lower in comparison to January 21 of this year when the price of WTI was $75.89. after reducing their net long positions for the second consecutive week.
For a complete forecast of crude oil and refined products and other energy-related fundamentals and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/services/services?ContentID=190" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.
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Hitting a Ceiling?

This weekly report is an excerpt from our&nbsp;<a href="~/services?ContentID=190" target="_self">Short-Term Outlook service</a>&nbsp;analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.&nbsp; Contact John Paisie (+1-832-517-7544) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
<hr>
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;">
<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/033125-WAOP_20250331094802.png?w=800" alt="chart">
The price of Brent crude reached $73.34 on Thursday before ending the week at $72.54 after closing the previous week at $72.11. The price of WTI ended the week at $69.04 after closing the previous week at $68.30. The price of DME Oman crude ended the week at $75.01. <o:p></o:p>
At the beginning of last week, we expressed the view that oil prices would continue to move higher, and the price of Brent crude could test $73.00 with support coming from members of OPEC+ reaching an agreement to address previous oversupply, coupled with the Trump Administration placing new sanctions on Iran&rsquo;s oil exports to China. Additional support was expected from demand starting to pick up with the northern hemisphere moving into the warmer months. The price of Brent crude did test $73.00 but prices dropped at the end of the week, in part, because of economic concerns stemming from President Trump announcing tariffs on all vehicles manufactured outside of the US. <o:p></o:p>
For the upcoming week, we think the price of Brent crude will move sideways and struggle to go higher for the following reasons: <o:p></o:p>
<ul>
<li>There are concerns and uncertainties about the impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration &ndash; and the possibility of retaliation &ndash; which will create more economic hardship for all parties. Additionally, economic news continues to be mixed. While the recently released official PMIs for China indicate that China&rsquo;s economy is picking up some momentum, employment still looks weak. Meanwhile, inflation is still lingering in the US. The core (excluding food and energy) personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up in March with a 0.4% increase from February, which is the largest increase since January 2024. From an annual basis the inflation rate is 2.8%. Including food and energy, the PCE increased by 0.3% for the month and 2.5% from a year ago.<o:p></o:p></li>
<li>Countering concerns about economic growth and oil demand is the threat of secondary sanctions of 25% to 50% tariffs on those importing Russia oil, if a ceasefire deal is not reached and Trump views the failure the fault of Russia. This threat follows the Trump Administration placing sanctions on Iran&rsquo;s and Venezuela&rsquo;s oil exports. While the ultimate effectiveness of the sanctions is in doubt, the sanctions add another layer of uncertainty to the oil supply, which provides some support for oil prices.<o:p></o:p></li>
<li>On the other hand, while members of OPEC+ have reached an agreement to address previous oversupply, OPEC+ is scheduled to start the process of unwinding previous supply cuts. Although the initial volumes will be relatively minor, OPEC+ is sitting on a spare capacity of more than 5.0 million b/d.</li>
</ul>
<o:p></o:p>Oil traders continue to be bearish. Net long positions of WTI are now 64% lower in comparison to January 21 of this year when the price of WTI was $75.89. after reducing their net long positions for the second consecutive week.
For a complete forecast of crude oil and refined products and other energy-related fundamentals and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/account/subscriptions/short-term-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.
</div>

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