The price of Brent crude ended the week at $66.64 after closing the previous week at $77.01. The price of WTI ended the week at $65.07 after closing the previous week at $74.93. The price of Oman crude oil ended the week at $67.92. 

Weekly Oil Price Outlook

President

John E. Paisie

This weekly report is an excerpt from our&nbsp;<a href="~/services/services?ContentID=190" target="_self">Short-Term Outlook service</a>&nbsp;analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.&nbsp; Contact John Paisie (+1-832-517-7544) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
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<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/063025-WAOP_20250630093729.png?w=800" alt="chart">
The price of Brent crude ended the week at $66.64 after closing the previous week at $77.01. The price of WTI ended the week at $65.07 after closing the previous week at $74.93. The price of Oman crude oil ended the week at $67.92. <o:p></o:p>
Last week, when our weekly note was being prepared, the US had just carried out its attacks on Iran&rsquo;s nuclear sites &ndash; Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan &ndash; and the extent of the damage to the sites and Iran&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities was unknown. At the time of writing this week&rsquo;s note, there is still uncertainty about how effective the attacks were in setting back Iran&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities. The damage to the underground facilities may be limited, and there is also the possibility that Iran moved equipment from the sites along with its stockpiles of enriched uranium to other locations. Additionally, despite the number of Iranian nuclear scientists killed by Israel, Iran still maintains the knowledge of how to enrich uranium. It is our view that it is highly likely the attacks were effective in destroying the underground facilities, given that the attacks were carried out as planned without a hitch and the sites were hit directly by a significant tonnage of bombs. If so, Iran may be able to restart enriching on a small scale, but Iran seems far from being able to develop a nuclear weapon, including the delivery system. Additionally, Iran has suffered extensive damage to its air defenses and missile launchers. <o:p></o:p>
Currently, a ceasefire is holding, and while the Supreme leader of Iran continues to talk defiantly, and Iran&rsquo;s deputy foreign minister has recently stated that talks will not resume until the US rules out any further attacks on Iran, we think talks between Iran and the US are likely to happen at some point. While the messages from Trump and his administration have not always been consistent, it appears that Trump is ready to move past the conflict and to forego any military attacks to encourage regime change. Trump also seems willing to forego further sanctions on Iran&rsquo;s oil exports and secondary sanctions on China for importing Iranian oil...
<h2><a href="~/members/members?ContentID=79490" title="" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Read More &gt;&gt;</a></h2>
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For a complete forecast of crude oil and refined products and other energy-related fundamentals and prices, please refer to our&nbsp; <a href="~/services/services?ContentID=190" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.

Back to Fundamentals? 

This weekly report is an excerpt from our&nbsp;<a href="~/services?ContentID=190" target="_self">Short-Term Outlook service</a>&nbsp;analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.&nbsp; Contact John Paisie (+1-832-517-7544) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
<hr>
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;">
<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/063025-WAOP_20250630093729.png?w=800" alt="chart">
The price of Brent crude ended the week at $66.64 after closing the previous week at $77.01. The price of WTI ended the week at $65.07 after closing the previous week at $74.93. The price of Oman crude oil ended the week at $67.92. <o:p></o:p>
Last week, when our weekly note was being prepared, the US had just carried out its attacks on Iran&rsquo;s nuclear sites &ndash; Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan &ndash; and the extent of the damage to the sites and Iran&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities was unknown. At the time of writing this week&rsquo;s note, there is still uncertainty about how effective the attacks were in setting back Iran&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities. The damage to the underground facilities may be limited, and there is also the possibility that Iran moved equipment from the sites along with its stockpiles of enriched uranium to other locations. Additionally, despite the number of Iranian nuclear scientists killed by Israel, Iran still maintains the knowledge of how to enrich uranium. It is our view that it is highly likely the attacks were effective in destroying the underground facilities, given that the attacks were carried out as planned without a hitch and the sites were hit directly by a significant tonnage of bombs. If so, Iran may be able to restart enriching on a small scale, but Iran seems far from being able to develop a nuclear weapon, including the delivery system. Additionally, Iran has suffered extensive damage to its air defenses and missile launchers. <o:p></o:p>
Currently, a ceasefire is holding, and while the Supreme leader of Iran continues to talk defiantly, and Iran&rsquo;s deputy foreign minister has recently stated that talks will not resume until the US rules out any further attacks on Iran, we think talks between Iran and the US are likely to happen at some point. While the messages from Trump and his administration have not always been consistent, it appears that Trump is ready to move past the conflict and to forego any military attacks to encourage regime change. Trump also seems willing to forego further sanctions on Iran&rsquo;s oil exports and secondary sanctions on China for importing Iranian oil. <o:p></o:p>
There are still risks with the possibility that Iran becomes internally unstable, and Israel, along with some US neocons, seems to be still itching for regime change. Additionally, Iran may see the results of the conflict as ever more reason to move forward with the development of a nuclear weapon. As such, some sort of negotiated agreement between the US and Iran remains imperative. &nbsp;But for now, the risk premium associated with geopolitics has nearly disappeared. <o:p></o:p>
With the halt to the Iranian conflict, the focus returns to concerns about the oversupply of oil during the second half of the year because of the accelerated unwinding of previous supply cuts by members of OPEC+. It was reported last week by Reuters that OPEC+ is planning to increase production by another 411,000 b/d in August.&nbsp; &nbsp;<o:p></o:p>
Oil prices are getting some support from the favorable refining environment, with refining margins widening and inventories of refined products declining. With respect to product inventories in the US, inventories of gasoline are slightly below the typical levels for this time of year when compared to the previous five years, and diesel inventories are well below the typical level for this time of year. Additionally, diesel inventories are relatively low across the regions, with gasoil stocks at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) at the lowest in over a year, and Singapore's middle distillates inventories have also been declining. &nbsp;<o:p></o:p>
For the upcoming week, we expect that oil prices will drift upward and that the price of Brent crude could approach $68.00.
For a complete forecast of crude oil and refined products and other energy-related fundamentals and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/services/services?ContentID=190" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.
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