Analysis on trends shaping Stratas Advisors' long-term bunker fuel outlook by fuel type, including alternative fuels (LNG, LPG, biofuels, e-fuels, electricity), with an in-depth assessment of the forecasted fuel mix in each region.

Long-Term Outlook

Manager, Clean Energy & Transport

Janire Riobello

Marine 

According to Stratas Advisors&rsquo; updated long-term outlook for 1H25, global bunker fuel demand is forecast to remain largely stable through 2050, expanding at a minor compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% between 2024 and 2050. While global bunker fuel demand is poised for consistent growth in line with vessel and port traffic growth, especially in emerging markets, growth is expected to remain marginal in the world&rsquo;s largest consuming regions, namely Asia and Europe.&nbsp;Alternative fuels could reach a market share of over 15% by 2050, with fossil LNG remaining dominant despite the exponential growth forecasted for emerging low-carbon fuels, including bio- and e-LNG, methanol, ammonia, and biofuels...

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<h3><a href="https://www.stratasadvisors.com/services/renewable---alternative-fuels/global-marinebunker-fuel-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Marine/Bunker Fuel Outlook</a></h3>

Global Bunker Fuel Outlook - 1H25

Stringent regulations set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and increased efforts to tackle shipping emissions in key markets such as the EU through key legislation such as FuelEU Maritime and revised Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) rules have pushed the global maritime industry to accelerate the transition to alternative fuels. However, this transition is complex and multifaceted, influenced by technological, economic, and regulatory factors that vary across regions and fleet types. Amid the shift towards lower-carbon alternatives, another significant trend is the relative resurgence of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) usage, facilitated by a growing scrubber-fitted vessel fleet&mdash;which is set to slightly reverse recent trends in increased lower-sulfur fuel oil consumption.
According to Stratas Advisors&rsquo; updated long-term outlook for 1H25, global bunker fuel demand is forecasted to grow slightly between 2024 and 2050 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5%. While global bunker fuel demand is poised for consistent growth in line with vessel and port traffic growth, especially in emerging markets, growth is expected to remain marginal in the world&rsquo;s largest consuming regions, namely Asia and Europe&mdash;which are forecasted to witness a CAGR of 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively, over the same period. In Europe, this deacceleration stems primarily from increasing fuel prices and bunkering costs. Falling bunker fuel demand in Europe is also affected by the incorporation of shipping into the EU ETS, as this is likely to create an incentive for vessels to bunker in other regions where carbon taxes are not applied. In addition to these factors, a stronger growth in global bunker fuel demand is further prevented thanks to improvements in fuel efficiency, especially in cases where vessel operators are affected by strong regulatory pressure and high fuel prices.
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Source: Stratas Advisors, 2025
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Stratas Advisors&rsquo; outlook suggests that alternative fuels could reach a market share of 6.1% of total bunker fuel consumption globally by 2030, expanding to 15.4% by 2050. Compared to the previous year, the 1H25 forecast thus provides a slightly more bearish long-term outlook for alternative fuels despite the relevant policy mechanisms put in place since then. This is primarily influenced by high costs and slower-than-expected infrastructure development, including vessels and bunkering services, which are set to affect overall uptake especially of &lsquo;new&rsquo; fuels.
In fact, fossil liquefied natural gas (LNG) alone is expected to account for 60% of total alternative fuel demand by 2030, although this figure is set to fall to 44% by the end of the forecast period as the availability of lower-carbon alternatives grows. With &lsquo;new&rsquo; fuels experiencing some of the strongest growth rates overall, fossil LNG demand growth is set to slow down in the 2030-2050 period, registering a 3.6% CAGR against the 9.3% forecasted for the 2024-2030 period.
A moderate portion of fossil LNG is expected to be replaced by bio-LNG, poised for a strong growth of 11% CAGR over the forecast period to make up 19.3% of the total LNG supply allocated to the shipping sector globally. The growth of bio-LNG is significantly notable in the first half of the forecast, with Europe alone accounting for over 80% of total global demand by 2030. While other regions also see a significant uptick in bio-LNG deployment in the forecast to 2050, Europe remains the leading consumer, capturing almost two-thirds of total global demand. The longer-term growth potential of bio-LNG is partially dampened by the emergence of e-LNG, which sees growth rates accelerate exponentially in the 2030-2050 period at a 25.6% CAGR against the 6% forecasted for bio-LNG over the same period. The contribution of e-LNG to the displacement of fossil LNG however remains significantly more limited at a market share of 1.8% by 2050 of total LNG volumes, equivalent to less than 0.2% of total bunker fuel demand&mdash;while bio-LNG is set to grow to make up a share of 1.7%.
Besides LNG, medium-term growth is also marked by a significant uptick in biofuels, which see a gradual expansion into the shipping sector as demand declines in road transportation. Biodiesel and renewable diesel&mdash;hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)&mdash;are forecasted to witness a combined CAGR of 30.2% over the forecast period to account for 0.7% of total global bunker fuel consumption by 2050. Europe sees the strongest penetration of bio-based diesel fuels, capturing 43.5% of the global market by the end of the forecast, although Asia Pacific is set to witness exponential growth at a CAGR of 21.6% over the forecast period.
In the short term, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is also expected to continue to see significant growth as the fleet of ocean-going dual-fuel LPG carriers expands. Counting about 125 vessels in 2024, LPG consumption in international shipping was still limited to some 555 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe), equivalent to about 0.2% of total global bunker fuel demand. While the orderbook for LPG-powered vessels may slow down compared to recent years as lower-carbon alternatives become viable, the global LPG fleet could exceed a volume of 350 vessels by the end of the decade, with global demand expanding at a CAGR of 20.9% over the 2024-2030 period to over 1.7 MMTOE. The rate of growth significantly slows down in the longer term, averaging at a CAGR of 3.6% between 2030 and 2050 to not exceed a market share of 1.2% of global bunker fuel demand by the end of the forecast.
Amongst the cleanest alternatives, the global hydrogen and electric vessel fleets are expected to see exponential growth in the coming decades, although deployment will likely remain largely linked to domestic navigation. As a result, their contribution to the decarbonization of the shipping sector is set to remain somewhat limited, not exceeding a combined market share of 0.5% of total bunker fuel demand by 2050. In turn, methanol and ammonia emerge to compete against fossil-and bio-based LNG to account for 27.1% of total global alternative bunker fuel consumption by 2050. &nbsp;
With an orderbook of over 370 vessels, methanol retains the largest potential to decarbonize the shipping industry in the short-to-medium term, growing at a CAGR of 71% between 2024 and 2030 to an estimated consumption volume of about 1.9 MMTOE by the end of the decade, equivalent to 0.7% of total global bunker fuel demand. Current methanol demand from the shipping sector is mainly concentrated in domestic operations, primarily in Europe. Methanol demand from this subsector is forecast to continue to grow steadily over the entire forecast, although ocean-going methanol-fueled vessels are expected to see a much stronger growth in the medium-to-long term. By 2050, global methanol demand in shipping is expected to reach 7.7 MMTOE, or 2.5% of global maritime fuel consumption. Similar to other low-carbon alternative fuels, Europe is set to capture the bulk of global methanol consumption over the entire forecast, although usage grows exponentially in Asia Pacific, North America, and Middle East as storage and bunkering services are rolled out to facilitate also long-distance trade of hydrogen molecules.
Ammonia also sees significant growth as a bunker fuel once deployment begins in the second half of the 2020s. With an orderbook of over 44 vessels before the end of the decade, ammonia experiences a stronger CAGR than methanol over the 2030-2050 period due to its comparatively lower technology readiness&mdash;necessitating more time for commercial-scale deployment. Potentially reaching a demand volume of some 510 ktoe by 2030, ammonia consumption in the shipping sector is expected to grow to over 5.1 MMTOE by the end of the forecast, equivalent to 1.7% of total global bunker fuel demand. Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to capture about 77% of total global ammonia demand for bunkers by 2050&mdash;although consumption will likely grow significantly in other regions as well.
Despite the massive expansion of alternative fuels in the shipping sector, conventional fossil fuels will continue to absorb the bulk of global demand throughout the entire forecast period&mdash;although they are set to experience significant volume and market share losses, especially in the longer term. Notably, high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) consumption saw a moderate rebound in recent years thanks to the growing fleet of scrubber-fitted vessels, which reached almost 6,000 units in 2024. While scrubber installations grew rapidly since 2010 at a CAGR of 66%, the rate of growth is expected to slow down significantly in the coming years thanks to a growing need to invest in cleaner alternatives overall. The penetration of scrubbers in the global fuel oil-fueled fleet is however unlikely to prevent a gradual demand destruction for HSFO, resulting in a negative CAGR of -0.9% between 2024 and 2050. In turn, ultra-low and low-sulfur fuel oils (referred to as &lsquo;very low sulfur fuel oil, VLSFO&rsquo; in this analysis) are likely to lose some of their price premium over HSFO over time, potentially becoming the regular fuel oil grade in most ports. As a result, VLSFO is expected to grow slightly at a CAGR of 0.3% between 2024 and 2050. Marine gas oil (MGO) demand is forecasted to plateau as demand from international shipping declines, with usage remaining increasingly more concentrated in domestic navigation.
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Source: Stratas Advisors, 2025
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Overall, as alternative fuel uptake is partially influenced by regulatory pressure and fuel prices, the specific alternative fuel choice to encourage decarbonization of the shipping sector varies across regions. Driven by EU legislation, Europe is expected to see the most heterogeneous alternative fuel mix in the world, with non-fossil based alternatives making up 65% of total regional alternative fuel consumption by 2050. This is largely attributable to the exponential growth of bio-LNG, which is set to capture 40% of Europe&rsquo;s total LNG demand by the end of the forecast&mdash;and 19.1% of total alternative fuel demand in the region. Biodiesel and HVO also see significant growth in Europe as deployment is gradually shifted to international bunkers, accounting for 5.2% of European alternative fuel demand by 2050. After bio-LNG, methanol is expected to become Europe&rsquo;s second-largest non-fossil alternative bunker fuel, reaching a consumption volume of 3.2 MMTOE by 2050. Capturing 42.6% of global ammonia demand for shipping, Europe also sees a significant penetration of ammonia use as a bunker fuel, although deployment remains more limited than methanol overall at a volume of about 2.2 MMTOE by 2050. Hydrogen use as a bunker fuel also sees a significant uptake in Europe, which is set to account for about 62.8% of global hydrogen consumption for shipping. With usage gradually shifting to international shipping, hydrogen consumption is likely to be concentrated in Northwest Europe, and to a lesser extent in Norway&mdash;with the latter however leading European demand in terms of adoption for domestic navigation.
Home to key global logistics hubs in Singapore, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and partly driven by strong investment in hydrogen supply chains in Australia, Japan, and South Korea, the Asia Pacific region will also see a strong penetration of non-fossil alternative bunker fuels, although fossil LNG is set to remain dominant throughout the entire forecast. In fact, Asia is expected to capture 46.7% of total global fossil LNG demand for shipping by 2050. Non-fossil alternatives are however expected to grow to account for 35.6% of total regional alternative bunker fuel demand by the end of the forecast period, with methanol and ammonia alone accounting for 3.1% of total regional bunker fuel demand. Contrary to Europe, bio-based alternatives remain relatively minor in Asia, not accounting for more than 0.4% of total regional demand (including bio-LNG).
Currently capturing 9.1% of global bunker fuel demand, and 13.5% of global alternative bunker fuel demand, North America also sees a slowdown in LNG consumption as it shifts to bio-LNG (25.4% of total regional alternative fuel demand by 2050), methanol (14.3% share), ammonia (7.4%), and biodiesel/HVO (7.1%). Other e-fuels and electricity see a significantly more limited penetration in North America&rsquo;s fuel mix both given the region&rsquo;s limited potential to decarbonize emissions stemming from domestic navigation, and the prioritization of exports of products such as e-LNG, e-diesel, and hydrogen to key demand hubs in Europe and Asia.
Most other regions see a stable growth in LNG usage over the entire forecast period, relatively limiting the uptake of lower-carbon fuels. For instance, Middle East and Latin America, which are set to account for 5.7% and 3.7% of global alternative fuel demand by 2050, respectively, see fossil LNG demand grow at a CAGR of 7.7% and 5.2% over the 2024-2050 period, although their strategic positioning will likely result in booming demand growth for methanol, ammonia, and bio-LNG as well in the longer term.
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Source: Stratas Advisors, 2025




<h3>More detailed information, including at the country-level, is available at Stratas Advisors'&nbsp;<a href="https://www.stratasadvisors.com/services/transportation---demand/global-marinebunker-fuel-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Marine/Bunker Fuel Outlook</a>&nbsp;service data tools.&nbsp;</h3>

According to Stratas Advisors&rsquo; updated long-term outlook for 1H25, global bunker fuel demand is forecast to remain largely stable through 2050, expanding at a minor compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% between 2024 and 2050. While global bunker fuel demand is poised for consistent growth in line with vessel and port traffic growth, especially in emerging markets, growth is expected to remain marginal in the world&rsquo;s largest consuming regions, namely Asia and Europe. Besides increasing fuel prices and bunkering costs, falling bunker fuel demand in Europe is also affected by the incorporation of shipping into the EU ETS, as this is likely to create an incentive for vessels to bunker in other regions where carbon taxes are not applied. In addition to these factors, a stronger growth in global bunker fuel demand is further prevented thanks to improvements in fuel efficiency, especially in cases where vessel operators are affected by strong regulatory pressure and high fuel prices.
Alternative fuels could reach a market share of about 6% of total bunker fuel consumption globally by 2030, expanding to over 15% by 2050. However, although fossil LNG will continue to capture the bulk of alternative fuel demand by 2050, the rate of growth is set to slow down in the 2030-2050 period, registering a 3.6% CAGR against the 9.3% forecasted for the 2024-2030 period. A moderate portion of fossil LNG is expected to be replaced by bio-LNG, with some volumes of e-LNG appearing towards the end of the forecast. Besides fossil- and bio-based LNG, biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) show great potential as they are displaced from the road sector, although methanol rises as the preferred alternative fuel in most regions--with ammonia also growing rapidly in the longer term as the associated technology improves.

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<h2>The full report is available to members of Stratas Advisors' <a href="https://www.stratasadvisors.com/services/renewable---alternative-fuels/global-marinebunker-fuel-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Marine/Bunker Fuel Outlook</a>. <a href="https://www.stratasadvisors.com/about/contact-us" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Contact us</a> for more information.&nbsp;</h2>