Although significant effort is being made to advance renewable jet and diesel substitutes, drop-in renewable gasolines are still relatively underdeveloped. Lack of investment stems largely from the acceleration transition to EVs which is displacing gasoline demand from the road sector. 

Analysis

Manager, Clean Energy & Transport

Janire Riobello

Senior Analyst, Renewables & Decarbonization

Ayesha David

Road Transportation 

<p>While significant efforts are being made to advance technologies to produce renewable jet fuel and diesel substitutes, lower-carbon gasoline alternatives are still largely underdeveloped, with gasoline distributors instead relying on biofuel blends to reduce the carbon intensity of their products. The lack of investment in drop-in renewable gasoline stems primarily from the accelerating global transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which are expected to displace increasing volumes of gasoline in the road transport pool. Although drop-in renewable fuels are primarily being developed as jet and diesel substitutes, there has been some interest in renewable gasoline produced primarily via green methanol, although other RFNBO- and bio-based pathways also present substantial scale-up potential. This analysis assesses the GHG intensity and upstream costs of different renewable gasoline pathways via green hydrogen and captured CO2 (Fischer-Tropsch and Methanol-to-Gasoline via syngas or co-electrolysis) and via advanced biogenic feedstocks (Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, and Hydrotreatment)...</p>
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Renewable Gasoline: GHG & Cost Comparison of RFNBO- and Bio-Based Pathways

<p>While significant efforts are being made to advance technologies to produce renewable jet fuel and diesel substitutes, lower-carbon gasoline alternatives are still largely underdeveloped, with gasoline distributors instead relying on biofuel blends to reduce the carbon intensity of their products. The lack of investment in drop-in renewable gasoline stems primarily from the accelerating global transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which are expected to displace increasing volumes of gasoline in the road transport pool. Although drop-in renewable fuels are primarily being developed as jet and diesel substitutes, there has been some interest in renewable gasoline produced primarily via green methanol, although other RFNBO- and bio-based pathways also present substantial scale-up potential. This analysis assesses the GHG intensity and upstream costs of different renewable gasoline pathways via green hydrogen and captured CO2--Fischer-Tropsch (e-FT) and Methanol-to-Gasoline (e-MTG) via syngas or co-electrolysis--and via advanced biogenic feedstocks (Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, and Hydrotreatment).</p>
<h3>Key Takeaways</h3>
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<li>Among the assessed pathways, renewable gasoline produced from green hydrogen and captured carbon shows the highest GHG reduction potential compared to fossil gasoline. In particular, e-MTG results in the lowest GHG emissions thanks mainly to the optimization of the process for gasoline yields, with synthesis and upgrading emissions remaining moderately below those for e-FT.&nbsp;</li>
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<li>Despite integrating multiple process steps, e-gasoline produced via SOEC co-electrolysis in the e-MTG pathway presents few GHG intensity savings per MJ of fuel compared to PEM-based e-MTG via syngas preparation due to the significantly higher energy requirements of SOEC co-electrolysis.</li>
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<li>Among the bio-gasoline pathways, pyrolysis has the lowest GHG emissions. Although it has a lower yield than the gasification and FT pathway, the single intermediate (bio-oil) in place of two (syngas and FT wax) reduces the overall energy requirements of the process.&nbsp;</li>
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<li>In general, electrolysis remains the single highest cost component for e-gasoline production, especially in co-electrolysis pathways requiring a higher-cost SOEC unit. CO2 capture accounts for another significant portion of total upstream costs, in particular where a DAC unit is utilized due to its significantly higher energy requirements compared to point source CCUS.&nbsp;</li>
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<p>The synthesis &amp; upgrading step presents significantly lower costs for e-MTG pathways, making traditional e-MTG via PEM the lowest-cost pathway for the production of e-gasoline, followed by traditional e-FT via syngas preparation despite its lower gasoline yield.</p>
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<li>As it relates to costs, bio-gasoline facilities fare much better than e-gasoline facilities. Aside from the hydrotreatment pathway, which includes a PEM electrolysis unit in this analysis, the highest cost in bio-gasoline pathways comes from the reactor unit, which tends to be a complex multi-unit operation.&nbsp;</li>
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<li>The additional process steps in the bio-FT pathway and the electrolysis-related costs in the hydrotreatment pathway significantly increase overall costs, making pyrolysis-based renewable gasoline the lowest-cost bio-based option.&nbsp;</li>
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<li>Overall however, competition from jet fuel presents a significant barrier to the development of renewable gasoline capacity with producers preferring to optimize for jet or to produce intermediaries. Considering the trend towards rapid electrification, the outlook for renewable gasoline capacity development is limited.</li>
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