The price of Brent crude ended the week at $75.38 after closing the previous week at $74.17. The price of WTI ended the week at $71.55 after closing the previous week at $70.33. 

Weekly Oil Price Outlook

President

John E. Paisie

This weekly report is an excerpt from our&nbsp;<a href="~/link.aspx?_id=976E7E91BF824780B394EFA86BD2E059&amp;_z=z">Short-Term Outlook service</a>&nbsp;analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.&nbsp; Contact John Paisie (+1-832-517-7544) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
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<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/052223-WAOP-Infographic.png?w=800" alt="Infographic" />
The price of Brent crude ended the week at $75.38 after closing the previous week at $74.17. The price of WTI ended the week at $71.55 after closing the previous week at $70.33.
Oil prices increased despite several developments that are negative for oil prices:
<ul>
<li>The US debt limit is still not resolved and negotiations between the Republicans and the Biden Administration broke off during last week</li>
<li>Commercial crude inventories in the US increased by 5.04 million barrels</li>
<li>The level of inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 2.43 million, which represents the seven consecutive weeks of releases from the SPR</li>
</ul>
We are still holding our view that the price of Brent crude oil will move toward $90 during the second half of the year based on our reference forecast of supply/demand and other factors &ndash; with the caveat that is more downside risk than upside risk associated with the forecast.
These risks are associated mainly with the demand side of the equation and recent data continues to highlight these risks.
<ul>
<li>The US consumer is still facing the combination of falling real wages, high debt levels and inflation. The extent of the latter is illustrated by food prices having increased by more than 20% over the last two years, according to the CEO of Walmart, the US&rsquo;s largest retailer.</li>
<li>The US 10-year treasury ended last week at 3.658%. In comparison the 10 year was at 4.073% at the beginning of March and 4.226% on October 19, 2022. The yield curve remains inverted with 2-year treasury at 4.252% and the 1-year treasury at 5.008%. An inverted yield curve is seen as a sign of the economy being on the verge of a recession.</li>
<li>The EU commission is forecasting that Germany&rsquo;s economic growth will only be 0.2%, while the entire EU is forecasted to grow at around 0.8% during 2023.</li>
<li>With respect to China, foreign direct investment in China decreased by 3.3% during the January through April. China&rsquo;s economic growth continues to be hampered by weak domestic demand and weak demand for exports. Additionally, China&rsquo;s youth jobless rate (age 16 &ndash; 24) has reached 20%, which is an all-time high.</li>
</ul>
The supply-side of the equation, however, looks more supportive. Last week, the number of operating oil rigs in the US decreased by 11 and now stands at 575 rigs, which compares to the pre-COVID level of 683 that occurred during the week of March 13, 2020. The number of operating oil rigs in Canada increased by 2 and now stands at 39, which compares to 40 operating rigs for the same period of the previous year.
The additional supply cuts of 1.16 million b/d that were previously announced by OPEC+ appear to have been initiated with the combined exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Gabon decreasing by 1.0 million b/d during the last two weeks according to shiptracking data. Further support for the supply reductions comes from the oil minister of Iraq and the minister of energy from Russia stating last Friday their mutual commitment to oil production cuts and the OPEC+ agreement.
Based on the production cuts along with our forecast demand, the oil supply/demand balance will shift into a deficit during the second half of the year.
For the upcoming week, we are expecting that the US debt limit will continue to be a source of uncertainty and the equity markets as well as the oil market will be affected by the ongoing developments. As such, signs of a positive resolution to the debt limit will provide upward support for oil prices. At this time, however, it appears that both sides are willing to continue with the negotiating process up until the final days before the US Treasury starts to run out of money, which the US Treasury Department says will occur on June 1. Current sticking points include adding work requirements to benefit programs, spending reductions, tax policies and a provision to ease the federal permitting process associated with energy projects.
For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/account/subscriptions/short-term-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.
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Supply Starts to Adjust

<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/052223-WAOP-Infographic.png?w=800" alt="Infographic" />
The price of Brent crude ended the week at $75.38 after closing the previous week at $74.17. The price of WTI ended the week at $71.55 after closing the previous week at $70.33.
Oil prices increased despite several developments that are negative for oil prices:
<ul>
<li>The US debt limit is still not resolved and negotiations between the Republicans and the Biden Administration broke off during last week</li>
<li>Commercial crude inventories in the US increased by 5.04 million barrels</li>
<li>The level of inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 2.43 million, which represents the seven consecutive weeks of releases from the SPR</li>
</ul>
We are still holding our view that the price of Brent crude oil will move toward $90 during the second half of the year based on our reference forecast of supply/demand and other factors &ndash; with the caveat that is more downside risk than upside risk associated with the forecast.
These risks are associated mainly with the demand side of the equation and recent data continues to highlight these risks.
<ul>
<li>The US consumer is still facing the combination of falling real wages, high debt levels and inflation. The extent of the latter is illustrated by food prices having increased by more than 20% over the last two years, according to the CEO of Walmart, the US&rsquo;s largest retailer.</li>
<li>The US 10-year treasury ended last week at 3.658%. In comparison the 10 year was at 4.073% at the beginning of March and 4.226% on October 19, 2022. The yield curve remains inverted with 2-year treasury at 4.252% and the 1-year treasury at 5.008%. An inverted yield curve is seen as a sign of the economy being on the verge of a recession.</li>
<li>The EU commission is forecasting that Germany&rsquo;s economic growth will only be 0.2%, while the entire EU is forecasted to grow at around 0.8% during 2023.</li>
<li>With respect to China, foreign direct investment in China decreased by 3.3% during the January through April. China&rsquo;s economic growth continues to be hampered by weak domestic demand and weak demand for exports. Additionally, China&rsquo;s youth jobless rate (age 16 &ndash; 24) has reached 20%, which is an all-time high.</li>
</ul>
The supply-side of the equation, however, looks more supportive. Last week, the number of operating oil rigs in the US decreased by 11 and now stands at 575 rigs, which compares to the pre-COVID level of 683 that occurred during the week of March 13, 2020. The number of operating oil rigs in Canada increased by 2 and now stands at 39, which compares to 40 operating rigs for the same period of the previous year.
The additional supply cuts of 1.16 million b/d that were previously announced by OPEC+ appear to have been initiated with the combined exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Gabon decreasing by 1.0 million b/d during the last two weeks according to shiptracking data. Further support for the supply reductions comes from the oil minister of Iraq and the minister of energy from Russia stating last Friday their mutual commitment to oil production cuts and the OPEC+ agreement.
Based on the production cuts along with our forecast demand, the oil supply/demand balance will shift into a deficit during the second half of the year.
For the upcoming week, we are expecting that the US debt limit will continue to be a source of uncertainty and the equity markets as well as the oil market will be affected by the ongoing developments. As such, signs of a positive resolution to the debt limit will provide upward support for oil prices. At this time, however, it appears that both sides are willing to continue with the negotiating process up until the final days before the US Treasury starts to run out of money, which the US Treasury Department says will occur on June 1. Current sticking points include adding work requirements to benefit programs, spending reductions, tax policies and a provision to ease the federal permitting process associated with energy projects.
For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/account/subscriptions/short-term-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 8pt;">Global Supply - Positive</h2>
The latest EIA report indicated that US oil production decreased to 12.2 million b/d from 12.3 million b/d of the previous week. We are forecasting that US production will increase throughout the year and will average 12.50 million b/d in 2023, which is 630,000 b/d more than in 2022. (For a detailed assessment of the US shale sector please refer to our <a href="~/services/integrated-oil---gas/enhanced-shale-service" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Enhanced Shale Service</a>
The EIA report also indicated that US crude inventories increased by 5.04 million b/d. In comparison to the same period of the previous year, crude inventories are 46.80 million barrels greater, but are 4.41 million barrels less than the level of 2019. Since 2015, the lowest US crude inventories were 394 million barrels, which was reached in September of 2018. Currently, US crude inventories are 468 million barrels. There have been concerns voiced about inventories held in Cushing, Oklahoma. Back in July 2014, crude inventories at Cushing were only around 18 million barrels. The highest inventories at Cushing were around 69 million in April 2017. Last week, crude inventories at Cushing were 35.47 million barrels, after an increase of 1.46 million barrels.
Based on the average of the last four weeks, exports of crude oil from the US are running at 4.19 million b/d, which compares to 3.42 million b/d during the previous year &ndash; and 2.74 million b/d in 2019. Concurrently, US imports of crude oil are running at 6.30 million b/d, which compare to 7.22 million b/d for the same period in 2019 and 6.28 million b/d in 2022. &nbsp;
Last week, the number of operating oil rigs in the US decreased by 11 and now stands at 575 rigs, which compares to the pre-COVID level of 683 that occurred during the week of March 13, 2020. The number of operating oil rigs in Canada increased by 2 and now stands at 39, which compares to 40 operating rigs for the same period of the previous year. From a global perspective the total oil and gas rig count fell to 1,808 at the end of April, which compares to 1,603 of the previous year, but is still well below that of 2019, when the rig count was 2,140. The US and Canadian rig count is below the number of operating rigs in 2019 (861 vs. 1078) with the number of operating rigs in Canada being higher now than in 2019, while the number of operating rigs in the US is lagging by 26% ( 752 vs. 1012). The rig count outside of North America lags by 10.83% (947 vs. 1062) &ndash; Africa by 26%, Middle East by 18%, Asia by 7%, and Latin America by 6%. An exemption is Europe, where the rig count is higher by 22% (120 vs. 98).
The level of inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 2.43 million and fell to 362.01 million barrels. Last week&rsquo;s drawdown was the seventh consecutive week of drawdown. We are expecting that the weekly draws will last for another 13 weeks. Since the beginning of 2022, inventories in the SPR have been drawn down by 234 million barrels. In comparison, commercial inventories have increased by 55.74 million barrels.
Last week the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it will purchase up to three million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Additionally, DOE has approval to cancel 140 million barrels of previously mandated sales for fiscal years 2024 through 2027.
Previously, OPEC+ announced additional production cuts of 1.16 million b/d with the following breakdown:
<ul>
<li>Saudi Arabia 500,000 b/d</li>
<li>Iraq 211,000 b/d</li>
<li>UAE 144,000 b/d</li>
<li>Kuwait 128,000 b/d</li>
<li>Oman &nbsp;&nbsp;40,000 b/d</li>
<li>Algeria &nbsp;&nbsp;48,000 b/d</li>
<li>Kazakhstan &nbsp;&nbsp;78,000 b/d</li>
</ul>
The cuts are to start in May and last to the end of the year and come after Russia announced cuts of 500,000 b/d. However, It has been reported that Russia is planning to reduce refinery runs by taking&nbsp; 425,000 to 455,000 b/d of refining capacity offline in April to allow for the maintenance of crude oil exports despite the reduction in oil production.
It appears that the supply cuts are occurring with the combined exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Gabon decreasing by 1.0 million b/d during the last two weeks according to shipping tracking.
For the upcoming week, we expect that this factor will be a positive factor for oil prices.
[shoojuview id="yrrpvsxvxpfgkpqtaher"]
&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h2>Geopolitics &ndash; Neutral</h2>
With respect to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it appears that Russia has captured Bakhmut. During the round of meetings that occurred this weekend, the G7 members stated support will continue for Ukraine as long as required. Ukraine is now expected to received F-16 jets as part of the military support, although the F-16s will not enter the conflict until Ukrainian pilots complete their training, which will take another four months. Additionally, EU member states are considering another set of sanctions against Russia with the intent to close loopholes pertaining to the rerouting of banned products by targeting entities that are helping to evade the EU sanctions.
Meanwhile, the IEA reported that Russia&rsquo;s oil exports in April reached 8.30 million b/d (5.20 million b/d associated with crude oil), which is the highest level since the start of the conflict. In comparison, Russia&rsquo;s oil exports were 7.70 million b/d in 2022 and 7.50 million b/d in 2021. Russia has been able to increase its exports despite the sanctions because the world, including countries in Asia, needs access to oil to maintain economic growth. Additionally, as we expected and highlighted would happen with the imposition of sanctions, Russia is shifting away from the use of &nbsp;western entities to handle the shipping of its crude oil and oil products. While Russia is selling its oil at a discount, the extent of the discount does not appear to be that significant on the basis of IEA&rsquo;s analysis, which indicated that Russia&rsquo;s oil-related revenue for April was 27% less in comparison to the previous year. The price of Brent, however, was over $100 during April of 2022 and only around $80 during April of this year. So with Russia&rsquo;s export volumes higher by 7.23%, the price discount for Russia oil would be only around 15%. The IEA also reported that Russia&rsquo;s revenue from oil exported increased to $15 billion from $13.3 billon in March.
For the upcoming week, we expect this variable to be a neutral factor for oil prices.
<h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Economy &ndash; Negative</h2>
The US debt limit continues to be a source of uncertainty and the equity markets as well as the oil market have been reacting to the latest developments. As such, positive resolution of the debt limit will provide upward support for oil prices. At this time, it appears that both sides are willing to continue with negotiating process up until the final days before the US Treasury starts to run out of money, which the US Treasury Department says will occur on June 1. Current sticking points include adding work requirements to benefit programs, spending reductions, tax policies and a provision to ease the federal permitting process associated with energy projects.
We are still expecting that a deal will be reached, and the US will not default. The latest news is that President Biden and Speaker of the House McCarthy are to meet on Monday to negotiate directly.
Meanwhile, the latest data continues to illustrate the challenges being faced by the major economies. The US consumer is still facing the combination of falling real wages, high debt levels and inflation. The extent of the latter is illustrated by food prices having increased by more than 20% over the last two years, according to the CEO of Walmart, the US&rsquo;s largest retailer.
The US Dollar Index ended the week at 103.20 from 102.68 of the previous week but remains well below the 114.10 that was reached at the end of September 2022. The 10-year treasury ended last week at 3.658%. In comparison the 10 year was at 4.073% at the beginning of March and 4.226% on October 19, 2022. The yield curve remains inverted with 2-year treasury at 4.252% and the 1-year treasury at 5.008%. An inverted yield curve is seen as a sign of the economy being on the verge of a recession.
Outside of the US, the EU commission is forecasting that Germany&rsquo;s economic growth will only be 0.2%, while the entire EU is forecasted to grow at around 0.8% during 2023.
With respect to China, foreign direct investment in China decreased by 3.3% during the January through April. China&rsquo;s economic growth continues to be hampered by weak domestic demand and weak demand for exports. Additionally, China&rsquo;s youth jobless rate (age 16 &ndash; 24) reached 20%, which is an all-time high.
For the upcoming week, we expect this variable to be a negative factor for oil prices.
[shoojuview id="thpqqlagjpuwrbocltoa"]&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;
<h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">Oil Demand - Neutral</h2>
The latest weekly report from EIA indicates that gasoline demand in the US decreased to 8.91 million b/d from the previous week of 9.30 million b/d. In comparison, for the same period of the previous year, gasoline demand was 9.03 million b/d. Based on the 4-week average, current gasoline demand is running 329,000 b/d less than for the same period of 2019, which represents a difference of 3.49%. Gasoline demand is greater than last year&rsquo;s demand for the last four weeks by 254,000 b/d. Diesel demand in the US decreased to 3.74 million b/d from the previous week at 4.04 million b/d. In comparison, for the same period of the previous year, diesel demand was 3.82 million b/d. Based on the four-week average diesel demand is running 157,000 b/d less than for the same period in 2019, which represents a difference of 3.93%. Diesel demand has been about the same as demand of the previous year for the last four weeks. Jet fuel demand decreased to 1.38 million b/d from the previous week of 1.92 million b/d. In comparison, for the same period of the previous year, jet fuel demand was 1.63 million b/d. Based on the four-week average, jet fuel demand is running 220,000 b/d less than in 2019, which is 12.15% less. Jet fuel demand is running ahead of last year&rsquo;s demand for the last four weeks by 66,000 b/d.
During 2023 we are forecasting that global oil demand will increase by 2.11 million b/d in relation to 2022. In comparison, the IEA raised its forecast for growth in oil demand again to 2.20 million b/d from 2.00 million b/d, which is a combined increase of 300,000 b/d from its January forecast. The research arm of OPEC &nbsp;is forecasting an increase of 2.33 million b/d.
The following is the breakdown of demand growth for 2023 by refined products:
<ul>
<li>Gasoline 42 million b/d</li>
<li>Diesel 02 million b/d</li>
<li>Jet fuel 98 million b/d</li>
<li>Fuel oil 01 million b/d</li>
<li>Naphtha 34 million b/d</li>
<li>LPG 67 million b/d</li>
</ul>
For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/link.aspx?_id=CEB8DD9F9DBF4C35A9A8997DFA038E3E&amp;_z=z">Short-term Outlook</a>
For the upcoming week, we expect this variable to be a neutral factor for oil prices.
<h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">Refining Sector &ndash; Neutral</h2>
Refining margins in the US increased last week with gasoline margins widening, while diesel margins were essentially unchanged.
The latest EIA report indicates that crude inputs increased slightly to 15.99 million b/d from 15.75 million b/d of the previous week. Refining utilization increased to 92.0% from 91.0% (utilization rate in the East Coast decreased to 90.3%, while the utilization rate in the US Gulf Coast increased to 97.6%). In comparison, for the same period of the previous year, crude inputs were 15.94 million b/d. Based on the 4-week average crude inputs are running 0.702 million b/d less than in 2019. Crude inputs are running above the previous year by 0.131 million b/d.
&nbsp;Gasoline inventories in the US decreased by 1.38 million barrels and are now 6.69 million barrels less than for the same period in 2019. Diesel inventories increased by 0.080 million barrels and are now 19.41 million barrels less than for the same period in 2019. Jet fuel inventories increased by 1.72 million barrels and are now 1.38 million barrels less than for the same period in 2019. Inventories of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remain below the 5-year seasonal average. The inventories of diesel are running around 10% below the five-year seasonal average. Diesel inventories are especially low in PADD 1. Last week, diesel inventories increased by 0.036 million barrels in PADD 1 and now stand at 27.07 million barrels in comparison to 36.35 million barrels for the same period in 2019.
Refining margins in Europe and Asia increased with gasoline and diesel margins both widening.
For the upcoming week, we expect this variable will be a neutral factor for oil prices.

<h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Oil Trader Sentiment &ndash; Negative</h2>
The net long positions of traders of WTI decreased last week with an increase in short positions. The net long positions remain well below the level of mid-April.
The net long positions of traders of Brent also decreased last week with long positions decreasing more than the decrease in short positions.
For the upcoming week, we expect this variable will be a negative factor for oil prices.

This weekly report is an excerpt from our&nbsp;<a href="~/link.aspx?_id=976E7E91BF824780B394EFA86BD2E059&amp;_z=z">Short-Term Outlook service</a>&nbsp;analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.&nbsp; Contact John Paisie (+1-832-517-7544) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
<hr />
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;">
<img src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/052223-WAOP-Infographic.png?w=800" alt="Infographic" />
The price of Brent crude ended the week at $75.38 after closing the previous week at $74.17. The price of WTI ended the week at $71.55 after closing the previous week at $70.33.
Oil prices increased despite several developments that are negative for oil prices:
<ul>
<li>The US debt limit is still not resolved and negotiations between the Republicans and the Biden Administration broke off during last week</li>
<li>Commercial crude inventories in the US increased by 5.04 million barrels</li>
<li>The level of inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 2.43 million, which represents the seven consecutive weeks of releases from the SPR</li>
</ul>
We are still holding our view that the price of Brent crude oil will move toward $90 during the second half of the year based on our reference forecast of supply/demand and other factors &ndash; with the caveat that is more downside risk than upside risk associated with the forecast.
These risks are associated mainly with the demand side of the equation and recent data continues to highlight these risks.
<ul>
<li>The US consumer is still facing the combination of falling real wages, high debt levels and inflation. The extent of the latter is illustrated by food prices having increased by more than 20% over the last two years, according to the CEO of Walmart, the US&rsquo;s largest retailer.</li>
<li>The US 10-year treasury ended last week at 3.658%. In comparison the 10 year was at 4.073% at the beginning of March and 4.226% on October 19, 2022. The yield curve remains inverted with 2-year treasury at 4.252% and the 1-year treasury at 5.008%. An inverted yield curve is seen as a sign of the economy being on the verge of a recession.</li>
<li>The EU commission is forecasting that Germany&rsquo;s economic growth will only be 0.2%, while the entire EU is forecasted to grow at around 0.8% during 2023.</li>
<li>With respect to China, foreign direct investment in China decreased by 3.3% during the January through April. China&rsquo;s economic growth continues to be hampered by weak domestic demand and weak demand for exports. Additionally, China&rsquo;s youth jobless rate (age 16 &ndash; 24) has reached 20%, which is an all-time high.</li>
</ul>
The supply-side of the equation, however, looks more supportive. Last week, the number of operating oil rigs in the US decreased by 11 and now stands at 575 rigs, which compares to the pre-COVID level of 683 that occurred during the week of March 13, 2020. The number of operating oil rigs in Canada increased by 2 and now stands at 39, which compares to 40 operating rigs for the same period of the previous year.
The additional supply cuts of 1.16 million b/d that were previously announced by OPEC+ appear to have been initiated with the combined exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Gabon decreasing by 1.0 million b/d during the last two weeks according to shiptracking data. Further support for the supply reductions comes from the oil minister of Iraq and the minister of energy from Russia stating last Friday their mutual commitment to oil production cuts and the OPEC+ agreement.
Based on the production cuts along with our forecast demand, the oil supply/demand balance will shift into a deficit during the second half of the year.
For the upcoming week, we are expecting that the US debt limit will continue to be a source of uncertainty and the equity markets as well as the oil market will be affected by the ongoing developments. As such, signs of a positive resolution to the debt limit will provide upward support for oil prices. At this time, however, it appears that both sides are willing to continue with the negotiating process up until the final days before the US Treasury starts to run out of money, which the US Treasury Department says will occur on June 1. Current sticking points include adding work requirements to benefit programs, spending reductions, tax policies and a provision to ease the federal permitting process associated with energy projects.
For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our <a href="~/account/services/short-term-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Short-term Outlook</a>.
</div>

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